Moderna Q3 2025: Revenue Slides on Softer COVID Demand, but Cost Cuts Boost Cash Outlook
Moderna's revenue kept falling as COVID vaccine demand cooled, but the company cut costs enough to improve its cash and spending outlook for the year.
| Q3 2025 | Reported |
|---|---|
| EPS | -$0.51 |
| Revenue | $1.02B |
Figures as reported by the company to the SEC for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Analyst estimates are not part of a filing, so no comparison to expectations is shown.
Key takeaways
- Sales were driven almost entirely by vaccines: COVID-19 shots (Spikevax and the newer mNEXSPIKE) brought in $971 million, split between $781 million in the U.S. and $190 million abroad. mNEXSPIKE, which only launched recently, has already grown to make up 55% of the company’s COVID vaccine doses and captured 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market, showing it’s successfully replacing the older Spikevax shot.
- Total revenue fell sharply from a year earlier, continuing an industry-wide pattern as COVID-19 vaccination demand keeps normalizing well below pandemic-era levels — this quarter’s results reflect that broader falloff rather than a company-specific setback.
- Moderna narrowed its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $1.6 billion to $2.0 billion and, notably, lowered its expected 2025 operating expenses to $5.2 billion–$5.4 billion, a $0.7 billion improvement from its prior guidance.
- The company also raised its projected year-end 2025 cash balance by $0.5 billion to $1 billion, to a range of $6.5 billion to $7.0 billion, meaning it now expects to end the year with more cash on hand than previously forecast.
- CEO Stéphane Bancel attributed the improved cost and cash outlook to the company’s ongoing cost-reduction initiatives alongside the strong early performance of the mNEXSPIKE launch.
- Trailing-twelve-month figures show a 36.4% gross margin, meaning Moderna still collects a healthy markup over what it costs to manufacture its vaccines, but operating and net margins remain deeply negative (around -149% and -141% respectively) because R&D and overhead spending still far outweigh sales — a gap the company’s cost cuts are aimed at narrowing over time.
- Trailing-twelve-month revenue was down about 28% from the prior year, underscoring that the drop in COVID vaccine demand has been a multi-quarter trend rather than a one-off dip.
Q3 2025 in context
| Metric | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0B | $1.9B | -45.4% |
| Net income | -$200M | $13M | -1638.5% |
| Free cash flow | -$880M | -$1.7B | +48.7% |
| Diluted EPS | -$0.51 | $0.03 | -1800.0% |
| Gross margin | 79.6% | 72.4% | +7.2 pts |
| Operating margin | -25.6% | -3.8% | -21.8 pts |
| Net margin | -19.7% | 0.7% | -20.4 pts |
Figures for the quarter ended Sep 2025 and the quarter ended Sep 2024, as reported to the SEC.
How the stock took it
Moderna Inc closed at $23.56 on Nov 5, 2025, the last session before the report, and at $24.54 on Nov 7, 2025, the first session after it — +4.2% across the report.
Closes from the market's daily record. Each figure spans the report date — from the last session that closed before it to the first that closed after — because a company may report before the open or after the close.
Sources: company report · earnings call