Alcoa Q3 2026 earnings: profit beats estimates as alumina strength offsets weaker aluminum
Alcoa's Q3 2026 profit topped per-share estimates as alumina price gains offset weaker aluminum results, while revenue came in below forecasts; cash generation stayed strong ahead of its AliGroup acquisition.
| Q3 2026 | Reported | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.82 | $1.52 | +20.0% |
| Revenue | $3.70B | $3.90B | -5.0% |
Key takeaways
- Alcoa’s adjusted profit per share beat analyst estimates even though total revenue fell short of forecasts — a sign that the mix of businesses performed better than the top-line number alone suggests.
- The quarter’s story was two segments moving in opposite directions: higher prices for alumina (the refined ore used to make aluminum) pushed that segment’s revenue up, while the aluminum segment’s revenue fell on lower shipments and weaker metal prices.
- Despite the revenue dip from the prior quarter, net income attributable to Alcoa rose to $483 million from $407 million in Q2 2026 and $232 million a year earlier, showing underlying profitability is still improving.
- Alcoa generated $643 million in cash from operations and $472 million in free cash flow (cash left over after running the business and funding equipment/plant spending) during the quarter, bringing free cash flow for the first nine months of 2026 to roughly $600 million.
- The company ended the quarter with $4.4 billion in cash, boosted by $2.6 billion raised in a September bond sale, money earmarked to help fund the roughly $3.1 billion cash portion of its pending AliGroup acquisition.
- The thin 3.61% trailing operating margin reflects the realities of the commodity metals business — aluminum and alumina prices are set by global markets, leaving Alcoa only modest control over margins even when volumes are strong.
- Trailing twelve-month earnings per share grew about 24% year over year and return on equity stood near 19%, suggesting profitability has been building over the past year even as quarterly results swing with metal prices.
- CEO William Oplinger said the company remains focused on safety and operational stability while working toward closing the AliGroup acquisition in the first half of 2027, and management expects debt levels relative to earnings (leverage) to settle around 1.5 times once that deal closes.
- Alcoa’s full-year alumina production target remains reduced from earlier in 2026 due to disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery, while its aluminum production outlook for the year was left unchanged.
Q3 2026 in context
| Metric | Sep 2026 | Sep 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.7B | $3.0B | +23.7% |
| Net income | $483M | $232M | +108.2% |
| Free cash flow | $472M | -$66M | +815.2% |
| Diluted EPS | $1.81 | $0.88 | +105.7% |
| Net margin | 13.0% | 7.7% | +5.3 pts |
Figures for the quarter ended Sep 2026 and the quarter ended Sep 2025, as reported to the SEC.
How the stock took it
Alcoa Corp closed at $40.08 on Oct 14, 2026, the last session before the report, and at $41.45 on Oct 16, 2026, the first session after it — +3.4% across the report.
Closes from the market's daily record. Each figure spans the report date — from the last session that closed before it to the first that closed after — because a company may report before the open or after the close.
Fundamentals
| Metric | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | 18.8% | Trailing 12 months |
| Operating margin | 3.6% | Trailing 12 months |
| Net profit margin | 9.4% | Trailing 12 months |
| Pretax margin | 8.9% | Trailing 12 months |
| EPS | $4.82 | Trailing 12 months |
| Revenue growth (YoY) | 6.5% | Trailing 12 months |
| EPS growth (YoY) | 24.1% | Trailing 12 months |
| Return on equity | 19.2% | Trailing 12 months |
Sources: company report · SEC 8-K filing · earnings call transcript